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Market Dashboard Intertie Trader

Contents

Introduction

The Sygration Market Dashboard Intertie Trader provides real-time and historical analysis of the electricity interconnections between Ontario and its neighbours. There are nine screens that include both historical, real-time, and forecast prices for energy flows for these interfaces. Interface prices and flows (where available) include those published from the Ontario System Operator (IESO) Mid-west System Operator (MISO), New York System Operator (NYISO), Pennsylvania Jersey Maryland System Operator (PJM), New England System Operator (ISO-NE), and Quebec System Operator (TransEnergie).

The Intertie Trader also includes several screens dedicated to the Transmission Rights Auction (TRA), where participants bid to own Transmission Rights across specific paths, for a period of time, and are compensated when congestion occurs on those paths. Financial Transmission Rights are financial instruments which traders can use to hedge energy trades from reduced profits due to congestion, but they can also be owned completely independently. The Intertie Trader application provides a full history of the Paths and TRA rights, including historical congestion data, auction pricing data, and return on investment analysis.

For more background information on Transmission Rights in Ontario and the Auction itself, refer to the following IESO Manuals and Training Documents on the IESO Website

IESO Homepage

System Access

The Intertie Trader is a component of the Sygration Market Dashboard, a subscription-based service offered to companies and individuals that participate in the wholesale generation, consumption or trading of electricity in the Ontario electricity market.



Intertie Status Screen

The Intertie Status tab shows the current prices and flows for a selected Ontario interface, as well as real-time schedules and flows for all IESO interfaces and those from Quebec (TransEnergie), NYISO, and ISO-NE. The screen updates automatically to show the latest prices and flow data.


Date Selection in the upper right allows you to select the date for showing prices. Data is only available for the past 14-days, or for the next day forward when day-ahead or pre-dispatch prices are available. If the current day has been selected, any updates will automatically switch to the next day at midnight, and continue to reflect the latest information.

Ontario Prices table shows the Ontario Pre-dispatch and Real-time prices for all hours in the selected date.

Import and Export Failure Charge formulae used in the calculations are below. The charge is a cost per MWh applied to deviations in the Import or Export schedule.

Selected Zone provides a selection of Ontario Interfaces to show further details below.

Interface Details table and price graphs for the selected Zone. The table shows the 24-hour Pre-dispatch or Dispatch Prices (when avaiable) for the selected Ontario interface.


Ontario Interface Zones and the associated Ontario Node used for the Shadow Price:
ZONE NAME ZONE PRICE IMPORT PATH EXPORT PATH SHADOW PRICE LOCATION
MANITOBA MBSI MAN-ON ON-MAN MB.WHITESHELL.CAN
MANITOBA-SK MBSI MANSK-ON ON-MANSK MB.SEVENSISTERS
MICHIGAN MISI MICH-ON ON-MICH MI.LUDINGTON
MINNESOTA MNSI MIN-ON ON-MIN MN.INTFALLS.US
NEW-YORK NYSI NY-ON ON-NY NY.ROSETON
PQ.B5D.B31L PQBE QBEAU-ON ON-QBEAU PQ.BEAUHARNOIS
PQ.D4Z PQDZ QD4Z-ON ON-QD4Z PQ.RAPIDDESISLE
PQ.D5A PQDA QD5A-ON ON-QD5A PQ.MASSON
PQ.H4Z PQHZ QH4Z-ON ON-QH4Z PQ.KIPAWA
PQ.H9A PQHA QH9A-ON ON-QH9A PQ.MASSON
PQ.P33C PQPC QP33C-ON ON-QP33C PQ.PAUGAN
PQ.Q4C PQQC QQ4C-ON ON-QQ4C PQ.QUYON
PQ.X2Y PQXY QX2Y-ON ON-QX2Y PQ.BRYSON

Current Schedules & Flows on the right-side of the page lists Import Schedules, Export Schedules and Actual Intertie flows in real-time of all Ontario interfaces as well as near-by Control Areas. Negative values are used consistently to indicate an Import (or net Import) into the Control Area.

NISL Binding Hours (72HR) Ontario must not allow the total of all interface schedules to change in excess of 700MW between any two hours. This table lists any hours in the previous 3-Days where the IESO Dispatcher prevented the Net Interchange Schedule from exceeding the 700MW limit. The Shadow Price adjustment (unconstrained run) that was applied is also shown. In addition, the table lists the forecast or actual interchange net energy change for the hour, along with any hours where the change is ≥ 600MW. This last set of hours are shown as they may become binding in future pre-dispatch runs based on the supply and demand of offers/bids as well as changing load forecasts.



Landscape Screen

The Landscape Screen shows the real-time energy prices of all Interface Zones in Ontario and Control Areas in the surrounding control areas. Energy prices can be shown in the local currency, or adjusted to Canadian Dollars or US Dollars using the latest Bank of Canada exchange rate.

Real-time Prices of Neighboring ISOs graphic is a bar-chart of the latest 5-minute prices from Ontario and those Control Areas in proximity. Timestamps at the top of each Control Area are the start-time of the 5-Minute interval. Ontario Prices are from Unconstrained Market Schedule, posted after the interval. Prices for non-Ontario nodes are full LBMP Energy Prices (including cost of Energy + Congestion + Losses). Some areas maintain thousands of locational prices, so only a key selection of prices are listed. Particularly important are prices in these Control Areas that are assigned to the Ontario interface, which is the energy price importers into this jurisdiction will be paid, or exporters must pay.

List of Nodes used for Real-time Pricing Graph:
Control Area Pricing Node Description
Ontario MBSI Manitoba Interface Price (Manitoba and Manitoba SK)
MISI Michigan Interface Price
MNSI Minnesota Interface Price
NYSI New York Interface Price
ONZN Ontario Market Clearing Price
Midwest ISO FE_HUB First Energy (Michigan) Price Hub
MHEB_DYN Manitoba Price Hub
MICH_HUB Michigan Price Hub
MINN_HUB Minnesota Price Hub
NYISO New York Interface Price
ONT Ontario Interface Price at Michigan and Manitoba
ONT_W Ontario Interface Price at Minnesota
New York ISO LONG ISLD Long Island
N.Y.C. New York City Price Hub
ONTARIO Ontario Interface Price
PJM PJM Interface Price
QUEBEC Quebec Interface Price
WEST Western Zone Price
PJM COMED COMED Price Hub
DOM Dominion (Virginia) Price Hub
IMO Ontario Price (Applied to Source/Destination with Ontario)
MISO MISO Price (Applied to Source/Destination with MISO)
NIPSCO NIPSCO Price Hub
NORTHWEST Northwest Price Hub
NYIS New York Interface Price
PJM-RTO PJM Price Hub
PSEG PSEG Price Hub
ISO New England HQ HIGHGATE Hydro Quebec HighGate Interface Price
HQ P1P2 Hydro Quebec P1/P2 Interface Price
NE MASS New England Hub Price
NY ROSETON New York Interface Price

Currency Selection allows you to show all prices in their local currency or to have the application convert the prices to either Canadian or US dollars. Exchange rates are based on the Bank of Canada published noon-hour or closing exchange rate, which is more current.

Selected Zone provides a selection of Ontario Interfaces to show further details below.

Interface LMP & Ontario Prices are shown in two tables of hourly prices 1) Day Ahead / Pre-Dispatch Prices and 2) Real-time Prices for the Zone you have selected above. Each table has 5 rows of data, as such:

All Real-time prices are average prices within each hour, including the current hour. As such, these prices may change as new 5-minute price data is received through-out the hour.

Arbitrage Calculations are based on $/MWh for importing, or conversely, exporting across the individual XX System Interconnect (i.e MISI, NYSI, MBSI, MNSI).

Note: Only positive arbitrage opportunities are shown, however, a positive opportunity in one path direction always equals a potential loss in the opposite direction.

The following Ontario and external LMP prices are used for calculating Arbitrage Opportunity.

Ontario Ontario Node External Area External Node
Ontario-New York NYSI NY-ISO O H (ID 61846)
Ontario-Michigan MISI MISO ONT
Ontario-Minnesota MNSI MISO ONT_W
Ontario-Manitoba MBSI MISO ONT


Historical Flows Screen

The Historical Flows Screen shows historical Intertie Schedules for both Imports and Exports since March 2005. Flows are separated by On-Peak and Off-Peak Hours, and also by Import Schedules and Export Schedules for each Ontario intertie. Both tabular and graphical data are proved for the selected Ontario Interface.

Selected Zone provides a selection of Ontario Interfaces to show further details below. Tabular data and graphs will update to reflect the interface you have selected.

Data Table shows monthly On-Peak and Off-Peak values for Intertie schedules since March 2005. On-Peak are the hours from 7AM EST - 11 PM EST (HE 8 - HE 23), Monday - Friday, while all other hours are Off-Peak. The table lists the monthly average hourly Import and Export schedules, along with the net schedule (Imports - Exports).

Average Hourly Net Energy Graph shows the trend in the On-Peak and Off-Peak hourly average net schedules from March 2005 to present. Again, On-Peak and Off-Peak hours are shown separately.

Congestion Hours Graph shows the number of hours in each month that had congestion on the interface. On-Peak and Off-Peak hours totals are shown, and further grouped by Import Congestion and Export Congestion hours. Congestion is determined by the price difference between the Intertie Zone (Ontario Side) and the Ontario market clearing price.



Auction Listings Screen

This screen lists all auctions (past and future) for the Ontario Transmission Rights Auctions (TRA). In these auctions, participants bid to own the rights across specific Paths (an interface and direction) for a period of time. During the that period, owners of these rights receive payments when congestion occurs on that path. The list includes the name and type of auction (Long = 1 year, Short = 1 month), the dates which the awarded rights apply, and the time(s) when the auction rounds are scheduled to occur. Clicking on any Auction Name will send you to the Auction Details screen (next tab).



TRA Analysis Screen

This screen provide information on the selected Transmission Right Auction, including information on the bidding rounds, when the rights are in effect, how many rights were available to be sold and were sold, and the financial returns these rights have received.

Note: If no Auction has been selected, select one from the TRA Listing tab or from the list of Recent / Upcoming Auctions in the right-side table

Total Transmission Capability, Rights Available and Rights Sold Table lists the Total Transmission Capability (TTC) in MW that each path is expected to be capable of handling at all times during the period which the auction rights will apply. This value generally reflects a minimum value that is expected during the ownership period. Each Path, its name and description, is listed along with the TTC and the total amount of Rights that will be allowed to be held during the ownership period. The amount of rights are based on the TTC multiplied by the IESO-established "confidence level" and are published prior to the Auction. The table also lists how many rights have already been sold in previous auctions that overlap with the selection auction period, and the amount of rights that will therefore be available for sale in this auction alone. If the auction has already occurred, the amount of rights sold and their Market Clearing Price (MCP) in each round will also be listed. By clicking on any Path Name, you will be brought to the Path Analysis Screen (next screen).

Note: The IESO may revoke rights sold in auction as a result of non-payment. The quantities of revoked rights are not made public, so are not factored into the above table and may result in an error in the amount of Previously Sold rights and Available This Auction rights.

Coupled Transmission Rights section shows the dependencies between the Michigan paths and New York paths. Prior to April 2012, a portion of scheduled imports and exports with Michigan flowed over the New York intertie, and vise versa. In April 2012, Phase Angle Regulators were made operational at the Michigan inteface and allowed for complete flow control at that intertie, afterwhich the individual ratings apply. Nomograms (graphs) illustrate the constraint equations that apply to transmission rights that are available to these interties. Previously sold rights and those sold in the current auction are identified as points on the graph.

The constraint equations represented by the diagonal lines can explain why less auction rights are sold for NY and MI than had these interfaces been independent of each other. For the nomogram shown on the right, the constraint equation represented by the blue line became binding and limited the amount of rights sold for these interfaces. In fact the slope of the blue line is -3, meaning that when the constraint is binding, for every 1 New York right sold 3 Michigan rights cannot be sold (alternatively, for every 3 Michigan rights sold, one less New York right can be sold).

As a result of this 3:1 ratio, the coupled constraint can also directly impact the market clearing prices in the auction for NY and MI rights. You can see this affect on the prices of the auction inbound rights:

MCP NY-ON ($662.16) = 3 x MCP MI-ON ($220.72)

Auction Returns Table lists all rights sold in the selected auction, along with the quantity and MCP. The table also includes how much Congestion Payments have been paid for each right and the total Return on Investment for each right held.

Return on Investment (%) = (Congestion Payments / MCP - 1 ) x 100 %

By clicking on any Path Name, you will be brought to the Path Analysis Screen (next screen).

Auction Status in the Upper-Right Corner lists the current status of the Auction Rights (when the awarded rights are in effect) and the status of the Auction Rounds (when the auction is open for bidding).

Recent / Upcoming Auctions List is a table of Auctions that have rights occurring in the current calendar year, or are scheduled in the future. By clicking on any Path Name, you will be brought to the Path Analysis Screen (next screen).



Path Analysis Screen

The Path Analysis Screen provides detailed analysis of a selected TRA Path, using historical Auction and Congestion information. If no Path has been selected when entering this page (or the Path has never been offered in previous Auctions), select a path by clicking on a Path listed in the table to the right.

Transmission Rights Sold at Each Auction graph is a stacked bar-chart of all TRA Rights sold against that path in the past 2 years. Long-Term Auction rights appear on the bottom of the graph and can be recognized by their stair-case shape that spans a 12-month period, starting in the month of the auction. Short-Term rights are always colored in Pink and appear at the top of the graph. The IESO tries to spread rights ownership for a particular month over several auctions, which is shown quite clearly in this graph.

Historical Auction MCP, Congestion Payments and Rate of Return Table provides an historical analysis of the selected path going back to mid-2004. The table lists the results for this path from each TRA Auction, including the quantity of rights sold and the MCP paid for each right. The table also includes Intertie Congestion Payment (ICP) information, showing how much was paid by the IESO for each right in a month as a result of Congestion on the path. A rate of return is also calculated based on the amount paid for each MW of right, and the amount of ICP received over the entire life of the right.

Path List Table lists all paths published by the IESO prior to each Auction. The lists includes some paths that are not part of any historical auction but may included in future auctions. Clicking on any Path name will update the current screen to show the analysis of the selected path.

Current TTC and Rights Offered Table lists the Total Transfer Capability (TTC) that applies to the current month, as published in any Pre-auction reports having rights ownership in this month.

Monthly Congestion Hours and Total ICP Table lists all months since early 2004, and the amount of hours in that month that had congestion on the selected path. The total amount of Intertie Congestion Payments (ICP) per MWh also paid to rights holders in shown.



Path Revenue Screen

The Path Revenue Screen lists all revenue and payments associated with the selected Path, along with all revenue and payments associated with all Paths. The data is available from early 2004 to the current date. It can be useful for analyzing trends in path profitability to TRA rights holders, as well as Path liability to the IESO as they must pay rights holders based on congestion. The IESO attempts to keep Path revenue and payments neutral, by assigning it a confidence level that restricts the number of rights sold relative to the TTC.

Monthly Returns & Payments Generated by Path and All Paths Table provides a monthly revenue and expense breakdown for the selected path, as well as all Ontario interface paths. The left-half of the table (columns 2-6) lists the monthly Revenues and Payments for the selected path, including revenue collected at each Auction, revenues collected by all Intertie trades as a result of Intertie Congestion Rent, and payments made to TRA Rights holders as ICP. The number of hours in the month where the path was congested is also shown. The right-half of the table (columns 7-10) list the same revenue and expenses but for all paths including those that are not associated with the any auctions.

Note: The table does not recognize interest revenue or extraordinary payments/refunds made to the Province of Ontario or Market Participants as a result of account surpluses. Auction revenue in this table is recognized to have occurred in the first month of the rights ownership: long-term right auctions do not have their revenue pro-rated.

Path List shows all paths published by the IESO including some paths that are not part of any historical auction but may included in future auctions. Clicking on any Path name will update the current screen to show the analysis of the selected path.

Path Historical Confidence Level Graph shows the historical confidence level for the past years using data from pre-auction reports for Short-Term auctions. Confidence level = Rights Offered / TTC .



Path MCP Screen

The Path MCP Screen lists the Market Clearing Prices of all past auctions. The table forms a matrix with all previous TRA Auctions as rows, all TRA Paths as columns, and MCPs as the values. Where auctions consist of multiple rounds, the MCP is the weighted average price of the rights sold in the rounds.

Clicking on the Auction name (left) will bring you directly to the TRA Analysis screen and show further details for the selected auction. Clicking on the Path name (top) will bring you directly to the Path Analysis screen and show further details for the selected path.



Path Rights Screen

The Path Rights Screen lists the number of Rights sold in each auction. As with the MCP Screen above, the table forms a matrix with the TRA Auctions as rows and the TRA Paths as columns. The values in the matrix are the total number of rights sold in all rounds of the auction.

Clicking on the Auction name (left) will bring you directly to the TRA Analysis screen and show further details for the selected auction. Clicking on the Path name (top) will bring you directly to the Path Analysis screen and show further details for the selected path.